October 2026 Visa Bulletin: EB-2 India Re-Opens at November 1, 2013 in the FY2027 Reset

By Deepak Middha, NRItoUSA.com · Published August 19, 2026 · Updated with each State Department release · Press & data inquiries

Quick answer: EB-2 India retrogressed 10.5 months in June 2026. The State Department then stopped issuing EB-2 India visas on May 22, 2026, and the category showed Unavailable from the July 2026 bulletin — India’s annual visa numbers had run out. On October 1, FY2027 numbers reset, and DOS had said it was likely EB-2 India would advance to at least July 15, 2014 — while warning the outcome was conditional on demand and the FY2027 annual limit. The October 2026 bulletin has now published: EB-2 India re-opened at November 1, 2013 — availability returned, and ahead of last October’s April 1, 2013, but roughly 8.5 months short of the date DOS flagged as likely. Dates for Filing held at January 15, 2015. We score that call in full below. The reset restores availability; it does not shrink the queue.

EB-2 India Final Action Date — the whole story in one chart

Where things stand now (October 2026)

Live from the October 2026 bulletin — this table updates with each monthly data refresh rather than being retyped.

The shutdown happened in two steps, and they are often conflated. DOS stopped issuing EB-2 India visas on May 22, 2026, when it announced that all FY2026 numbers for the category had been used — in its words, “India’s pro-rated EB-2 limit was reached and the category is unavailable for the remainder of FY 2026.” The bulletin only showed Unavailable from the July edition; the June bulletin still posted a Final Action Date. That is the Summer Cap Cliff (see glossary below): arithmetic, not a policy change — India’s EB-2 allotment was exhausted more than four months before the fiscal year ends on September 30.

EB-5 unreserved India hit the same wall in the same cycle and is expected to return to at least its June 2026 level in October. The EB-5 reserved set-asides (rural, high unemployment, infrastructure) were not affected — which is why EB-5 keeps coming up as a backlog escape route for Indian applicants.

What we predicted on August 19, 2026, before publication

Only the EB-2 row rests on an on-the-record DOS statement. The EB-1 and EB-3 rows are inference from how past October resets behaved, which is a materially weaker basis — treat them accordingly. DOS guaranteed no specific date.

The October “Snapback,” verified: four years of data

Every cell below is taken directly from the official State Department bulletin for that month — EB-2 India, October editions (the first bulletin of each fiscal year):

Why not further? The Fiscal Year Reset Snapback is real — the reset resumes well ahead of last October’s April 1, 2013 rather than crawling on from it — but it did not restore FY2026’s high-water mark. EB-2 India had reached July 15, 2014 in the April 2026 bulletin and held it through May, before the June retrogression and July unavailability. October 2026 came back roughly 8.5 months below that peak, which is what the snapback thesis got wrong: a reset restores supply, and the cutoff it can support still depends on how much demand is already queued at each priority date.

The statutory math (INA §201–202): why “Unavailable” keeps happening

The worldwide employment-based limit has a statutory floor of 140,000 per fiscal year (INA §201(d)). EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 each receive 28.6% of it — 40,040 visas per category. The per-country ceiling (INA §202) is 7%, so at the floor:

The 7% figure is a ceiling applied through pro-rating, not a quota India is guaranteed — and per-country limits yield to the “otherwise unused” rule, so India routinely receives well above the base. The derivable part: with an FY2026 EB pool of 186,000, EB-2’s 28.6% share is about 53,200 numbers, which puts India’s 7% EB-2 floor near 3,700. What India actually received on top of that floor is not yet publishable — FY2026 does not end until September 30, 2026, and the issuance totals come from the Department’s annual Report of the Visa Office afterwards. What is already established is the outcome: the Department announced on May 22, 2026 that all FY2026 EB-2 numbers for India had been issued, more than four months before year end. The base math is why the queue moves in months per year, not years per year.

The supply squeeze journalists should watch

The total EB supply is the floor plus the previous year’s unused family-based numbers. That spillover swings hard year to year — it has not simply shrunk since the pandemic peak:

The backlog-to-quota ratio

The Cato Institute’s analysis of USCIS and State Department inventory data (David J. Bier) puts the total employment-based green card backlog at roughly 1.8 million people, of whom about 1.1 million are Indian nationals — principal applicants plus dependents, most of them in EB-2 and EB-3. Against an India allotment measured in single-digit thousands per year, Cato estimates a new EB-2 India applicant today faces a wait measured in decades, with a widely cited figure of 134 years at then-current rates, and projects that about 424,000 employment-based applicants will die waiting — more than 90% of them Indian.

Who can actually file an I-485 in October

This is the part most October coverage skips. The Final Action Date decides who gets approved; the Dates for Filing chart decides who gets to apply — and only in months USCIS says it will honour that chart. October is historically the month it most often does, and it did again.

With the bulletin published — Final Action at November 1, 2013, Dates for Filing at January 15, 2015, and USCIS confirming the Dates for Filing chart for both employment-based and family-sponsored adjustment — EB-2 India splits into three groups. Note that the middle band is wider than our forecast implied: because the Final Action Date came back at November 1, 2013 rather than the July 15, 2014 we predicted, applicants between those two dates can file but cannot be approved, where our forecast had them approvable.

That middle band is the group October actually changes something for, and all three inputs it depends on are now published rather than forecast: the Final Action Date, the Dates for Filing date, and the USCIS chart determination. What is not fixed is next month — a chart determination applies to one bulletin at a time, and a later bulletin can retrogress either date.

Our record on this call — scored

Predictions are cheap unless someone scores them, so here is ours, pre-committed and dated. The right-hand column is filled in from the published document rather than by quietly editing the forecast — two of the four calls landed, one missed, and one came close.

Status as of September 29, 2026: the Department of State has published the October 2026 Visa Bulletin, the first edition of FY2027. The predictions below are left exactly as they were written on August 19, 2026 and scored against it.

The most likely way this call goes wrong is not the EB-2 row — DOS put that in writing. It is the FY2027 annual limit. FY2026’s 186,000 leaned on roughly 46,000 unused family numbers; a materially smaller spillover shrinks India’s pro-rated share and is exactly the condition DOS attached to its own guidance.

Three terms that explain everything (quotable glossary)

What this means for you

Priority date before November 1, 2013 (EB-2 India): your case can resume moving in October — this is the published Final Action Date, so approval is possible.

Priority date between November 1, 2013 and January 15, 2015: you can file I-485 in October but cannot be approved yet. USCIS confirmed the Dates for Filing chart for both employment-based and family-sponsored adjustment, so this is the group the reset actually opens a window for.

Date years away: the honest math doesn’t change. See exactly where you stand with our Priority Date Checker, model the remaining wait with the Green Card Tracker, and if your EB-3 date would be current sooner, read the EB-2 to EB-3 downgrade analysis. Ongoing coverage: EB-2 India tracker, retrogression explained, and Final Action vs Dates for Filing. If your spouse was born outside India, check cross-chargeability before any category strategy.

When does the bulletin drop? Around September 8–15 at travel.state.gov. We publish same-day analysis — bookmark this page or the monthly update guide.

Frequently asked questions