Visa & Green Card

H-1B Lottery Chance Calculator 2027

Estimate your H-1B lottery selection odds based on wage level, U.S. master's cap eligibility, expected registration volume, and number of attempts.

  • Updated for FY 2027 wage-weighted selection
  • No signup
  • No personal data
  • Instant range

Educational estimate only. Not legal, tax, immigration, or financial advice. Full disclaimer below.

DMReviewed by Deepak Middha, CA, Series 65Updated July 8, 2026 2026 verified

Key takeaways

  • • Compete against a fixed cap of 85,000 visas — 65,000 regular plus 20,000 reserved for US master's holders.
  • • Weight your entries under FY 2027 rules: Level I = 1 entry rising to Level IV = 4 entries by OEWS wage level.
  • • Add a second draw with a qualifying US master's degree — foreign master's degrees do not access the 20,000 cap.
  • • Expect one entry per person regardless of how many employers register you — beneficiary-centric selection since FY 2025.
  • • Compound your odds across years: staying in valid status (for example on STEM OPT) buys additional attempts.

FY 2027 wage-weighted estimator

Estimate your H-1B selection odds

Adjust the inputs — your estimate updates instantly. No signup, no personal data.

Estimated selection chance

9%13%

one-year estimate · range, not a guarantee

LowWage weight 1x

These are long odds in a single year. A U.S. master's degree, a genuinely higher wage level, and more attempts over time are the levers that matter — and a backup plan is essential.

Degree advantage
Regular cap only
Over 1 attempt
9%13%
Assumed pool
320,000

Recommended next steps

  • Check whether your wage level is accurate for your SOC code and work location.
  • Confirm your employer's registration details and filing plan.
  • Prepare a realistic backup plan in case you are not selected.
  • On OPT / STEM OPT, map out your future attempts across cap seasons.

Educational estimate only, not legal advice. Actual USCIS odds depend on final registration volume, wage-level distribution, withdrawals, denials, and USCIS selection behavior. Verify with USCIS, DOL wage data, your employer, and an immigration attorney.

How this calculator estimates your odds

The estimate uses transparent, editable assumptions — not fake certainty. The statutory cap is fixed at 65,000 regular + 20,000 U.S. advanced-degree = 85,000 total. Under FY 2027 wage-weighting, each registration carries weighted entries by OEWS wage level: Level I = 1, Level II = 2, Level III = 3, Level IV = 4.

Total weighted ticket pool

Total weighted tickets = Level I registrations × 1 + Level II × 2 + Level III × 3 + Level IV × 4.

Individual chance

weightedChance = 1 − (1 − baseTicketProbability)wageWeight. A higher wage level gives more weighted entries — it does not guarantee selection.

Multiple attempts

Chance over multiple attempts = 1 − (1 − oneYearChance)numberOfAttempts.

For U.S. master’s candidates, we use a two-step approximation: the regular 65,000 draw first, then the 20,000 advanced-degree draw if not selected. Because final USCIS counts change every year, you can adjust the total registration assumption (high, baseline, lower, or a custom number). We assume an editable wage-level mix of Level I 40%, Level II 42%, Level III 11%, Level IV 7%. All numbers are ranges, never exact odds.

On multiple registrations: multiple employers do not multiply your chance the old way. Under beneficiary-centric selection, the person is selected, not each duplicate registration. If your registrations carry different wage levels, USCIS integrity rules may use the lowest applicable wage level — so confirm with your attorney and employers.

Quick answer: what are my H-1B lottery chances in 2027?

Your odds depend mainly on total registrations, your wage level, U.S. master’s eligibility, and your number of future attempts. Level IV is stronger than Level I because of the 4× weighting — but even a high wage level is not a guarantee. A U.S. master’s degree can still help thanks to the 20,000 advanced-degree allocation.

How the FY 2027 wage-weighted H-1B lottery works

Before FY 2027, selection was essentially random once beneficiary-centric rules applied — salary did not change your odds. Starting with the FY 2027 cap season, wage level changes odds:

  • • Level I = 1 entry
  • • Level II = 2 entries
  • • Level III = 3 entries
  • • Level IV = 4 entries

Wage level is based on the OEWS prevailing wage level for the SOC code and area of intended employment — see our H-1B prevailing wage guide and prevailing wage calculator.

H-1B selection rate history

The calculator’s volume assumptions are anchored to what USCIS has actually published. Rates rose sharply once beneficiary-centric selection removed duplicate registrations in FY 2025, even though the 85,000 cap never changed.

Cap seasonEligible registrationsSelected (all rounds)Approx. rate
FY 2023 (Mar 2022)~484,000~127,600~26%
FY 2024 (Mar 2023)~759,000~188,400~25%
FY 2025 (Mar 2024)~470,000~134,000~29%
FY 2026 (Mar 2025)~344,000~118,700~35%
FY 2027 (Mar 2026)Per USCIS announcementFirst wage-weighted yearModel it above

Source: USCIS H-1B cap season announcements and registration data (rounded). Read the full explainer at H-1B lottery chances.

H-1B wage levels explained

Wage LevelTypical meaningLottery weightPractical effect
Level IEntry-level / lower prevailing wageLowest weighted odds
Level IIQualified / mid-levelBetter than Level I
Level IIIExperienced / high skillStronger odds
Level IVFully competent / senior / highest prevailing wageHighest weighted odds, still not guaranteed

Does a U.S. master’s degree still help?

Yes — a qualifying U.S. master’s degree or higher can still help because of the advanced-degree exemption: if you aren’t selected in the regular 65,000 draw, you get a second consideration for the 20,000 reserved slots. But wage level now matters too. A U.S. master’s applicant at Level I may not have the same practical odds as a Level III or IV applicant. The two levers compound — degree access and weighted entries.

For Indian applicants

H-1B lottery selection is not nationality-based. Indian applicants face the same wage-level and degree rules as everyone else. Country of birth matters more later — in the EB-2 / EB-3 green card backlog, not in the lottery selection itself. Track where it counts with the visa bulletin tracker and the green card process.

For F-1 OPT and STEM OPT students

Many students early in their careers fall into Level I or Level II. The big advantage of STEM OPT is more attempts over multiple years, and attempts compound:

Chance over multiple attempts = 1 − (1 − oneYearChance)numberOfAttempts

So even a modest single-year chance grows meaningfully across two to four cap seasons. See H-1B lottery for F-1 OPT students.

What does not improve your odds

  • Fake job offers
  • Duplicate registrations
  • Paying anyone for 'guaranteed' selection
  • Inflating wage level without real support
  • Multiple employers unless each offer is genuine
  • Résumé strength alone

What can legitimately improve your chances

  • A higher genuine wage level
  • A qualifying U.S. master's degree
  • More valid attempts via OPT/STEM OPT or another status
  • A cap-exempt employer strategy
  • A strong backup plan if not selected
  • Accurate employer filing and documentation

Frequently asked questions

What are my H-1B lottery chances for FY 2027?

Your odds depend mainly on total registration volume, your OEWS wage level, whether you qualify for the U.S. master's cap, and how many future attempts you have. Under the FY 2027 wage-weighted process, higher wage levels get more weighted entries, so a Level IV applicant has better estimated odds than a Level I applicant in the same pool. This calculator gives an educational range, not an exact number — actual odds depend on final USCIS registration counts.

Does salary affect H-1B lottery odds now?

Yes — this is the key change. In older H-1B lotteries, salary did not change selection odds. Starting with the FY 2027 cap season, the wage-weighted selection process gives higher OEWS wage levels more entries in the selection pool: Level I = 1 entry, Level II = 2, Level III = 3, Level IV = 4. So a genuinely higher wage level improves your weighted odds, though it never guarantees selection.

What is the H-1B wage-weighted lottery?

It is the FY 2027 selection method in which each registration is weighted by the job's OEWS prevailing wage level. Instead of every registration having one equal ticket, Level I gets 1 weighted entry and Level IV gets 4. USCIS still selects beneficiaries (one person, not each duplicate registration), but higher wage levels carry proportionally more weight in the draw.

What is Wage Level I, II, III, and IV?

These are the four OEWS prevailing wage levels for a given SOC occupation code and area of employment. Level I is entry-level (lower prevailing wage), Level II is qualified/mid-level, Level III is experienced, and Level IV is fully competent/senior (highest prevailing wage). The level is based on the job's requirements versus the local wage distribution — not on your résumé strength.

Does a U.S. master's degree still improve my H-1B chances?

Yes. A qualifying U.S. master's degree or higher still helps because of the 20,000-visa advanced-degree exemption, which gives you a second consideration if you are not selected in the regular 65,000 draw. But wage level now also matters — a U.S. master's applicant at Level I may not have the same practical odds as a Level III or IV applicant.

Do multiple employers increase my H-1B lottery odds?

No. Under beneficiary-centric selection, the person is selected, not each duplicate registration, so multiple employers do not multiply your chances the old way. If multiple genuine registrations have different wage levels, USCIS integrity rules may use the lowest applicable wage level. Multiple genuine offers only help by giving more than one employer able to file if you are selected — confirm details with your attorney and employers.

Are H-1B lottery odds different for Indian applicants?

No — H-1B lottery selection is not nationality-based. Indian applicants are affected by the same wage-level and degree rules as everyone else. Country of birth matters later, in the EB-2/EB-3 green card backlog and visa bulletin, not in the lottery selection itself.

How do I know my wage level?

Your OEWS prevailing wage level (I–IV) is determined by the SOC occupation code and the area of intended employment. Ask your employer or immigration attorney, or look up the wage for your role and location using DOL FLAG / OEWS wage data. It reflects the job's requirements against the local wage distribution.

Can my employer choose a higher wage level to improve my odds?

The wage level must genuinely reflect the job's requirements and the actual offered wage; it is not a dial to turn for lottery advantage. Inflating a wage level without real support can create compliance and integrity problems. A legitimately higher-paying, more senior role can carry a higher wage level — but that must be real. Always work within the law and confirm with your attorney.

Is this calculator legal advice?

No. This is an educational estimate only and is not legal advice. Actual USCIS odds depend on final registration volume, the real wage-level distribution, petition withdrawals, denials, and USCIS selection behavior. Verify with USCIS, DOL wage data, your employer, and a qualified immigration attorney before relying on any figure.

What should I do if my chance is low?

Confirm your wage level is accurate, make sure your employer's registration is correct, and build a concrete backup plan — for example additional OPT/STEM OPT attempts, a cap-exempt employer, another status, or studying further for the master's cap. Low odds in one year do not mean the door is closed; more valid attempts raise your cumulative chance.

How do multiple attempts affect my odds?

Each independent attempt compounds your cumulative chance using the approximation: chance over multiple attempts = 1 − (1 − one-year chance)^number of attempts. So even a modest single-year chance grows meaningfully over two, three, or four attempts. STEM OPT can help by giving you more valid years to re-enter the lottery.

Written / reviewed by Deepak Middha · CA, Series 65

Last updated: July 8, 2026

DM

Deepak Middha, CA, Series 65Founder & Author

Deepak has experience in cross-border finance, tax-aware planning, and immigrant money decisions. View full profile →

H-1B cap seasonLottery odds analysisUS work visas

Educational content, not personalized tax, legal, immigration, or financial advice. Rules, fees, and processing times change — always verify with the official source before acting.

Disclaimer, assumptions & sources

This tool is for general education and planning only. It does not replace advice from a CPA, attorney, financial advisor, USCIS, IRS, State Department, or other official source. Rules, limits, forms, fees, dates, and government processing information may change. Always verify before filing, investing, or making immigration, tax, or financial decisions.

  • For educational use only — not legal advice.
  • Not tax advice.
  • Not financial advice.
  • Not immigration advice.
  • Numbers, forms, fees, dates, rules, and limits may change at any time.
  • Always verify with official sources before acting.
  • Consult a CPA, attorney, financial advisor, or the relevant official agency (USCIS, IRS, State Department) when it matters to your situation.

This is an educational estimate, not legal advice. Actual USCIS odds depend on final registration volume, wage-level distribution, petition withdrawals, denials, and USCIS selection behavior. Verify with USCIS, DOL wage data, your employer, and an immigration attorney.

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